Thursday, October 16, 2025
HomeForexUSD/CAD Outlook Improves Amid Geopolitical Danger, Cautious Fed

USD/CAD Outlook Improves Amid Geopolitical Danger, Cautious Fed


  • USD/CAD outlook improves because it trades above 1.37, lifted by safe-haven flows.
  • Fed’s cautious stance on inflation reinforces assist for the greenback, however coverage uncertainty persists.
  • CAD positive factors restrict upside as rising oil costs provide some counterbalance to USD energy.

The USD/CAD outlook stays mildly optimistic because the pair prolonged its upside for the third consecutive session on Thursday. The pair is hovering above 1.3700, on the time of writing. The latest bullish transfer is attributed to the Fed’s cautious tone supported by the safe-haven flows to the greenback amid geopolitical worries.

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Geopolitical dangers are escalating as Iran-Israel battle has already dampened the danger sentiment. US President’s aggressive stance in opposition to Iran has intensified state of affairs because the worry of US navy intervention have surged. These developments have given energy to the US greenback, as a safe-haven asset, pushing the US greenback index above 99.00 mark.

Furthermore, the Federal Reserve’s latest coverage assembly saved rates of interest on maintain at 4.25% – 4.50%, as anticipated. Nonetheless, the Fed Chair got here up with a cautious tone, acknowledging that the inflation remains to be above their targets. Therefore, the speed reduce primarily is dependent upon how labor markets carry out and if the declining pattern within the inflation sustains, given the Trump tariffs may doubtlessly reaccelerate the inflation. The Fed Chair additionally reiterated that the central financial institution is predicted to ship two price cuts by finish of 2025.

On the opposite aspect of equation, the Canadian greenback’s draw back is proscribed amid stronger crude oil costs. The WTI costs examined $75.00 stage close to 5-month highs earlier than slipping somewhat. Additionally, the worry of oil provide disruptions loom giant as Iran may seize the Hormuz Strait.

USD/CAD Technical Outlook: Bullish Above 1.3700

USD/CAD Technical OutlookUSD/CAD Technical Outlook
USD/CAD 4-hour chart

The USD/CAD 4-hour chart exhibits a check of resistance at 1.3728 adopted by a gentle retreat. Nonetheless, the worth stays properly above the 20-period SMA which is a optimistic signal for the pair. The RSI worth is close to the overbought space which signifies the worth could consolidate round present ranges and revenue taking might be noticed as properly.

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If the pair manages to seek out acceptance above 1.3700 space, it could look to check 1.3800 forward of 1.3850. On the flip aspect, if the promoting stress mounts and value breaks the 1.3700 barrier, it could drift again to 1.3650 forward of 1.3600.

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