Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOGL) CEO Sundar Pichai gave a lightweight, oblique response to the rising dialogue about Gemini 3, Google’s subsequent main language mannequin – and it had main implications for predictions markets on Polymarket.
The remark got here as hypothesis intensified on Polymarket, the place merchants now estimate a 69% likelihood that Google will launch the mannequin on November 22.
Prediction markets are betting on Gemini 3 launch subsequent week $goog pic.twitter.com/cyvrJSMp62
— Alphabetting (@wintermoat) November 14, 2025
Polymarket has change into the most important prediction platform for betting on real-world occasions. Customers put cash on every part from product launch dates and Bitcoin (BTC) value swings to election outcomes and Federal Reserve choices.
The market has changed into a spot the place merchants attempt to value main tech strikes earlier than they occur and Gemini 3 is the most recent focus.
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What Does Sundar Pichai’s “Pondering Face” Emoji Sign About Gemini 3?
Individuals commerce occasion contracts utilizing cryptocurrency. The platform not too long ago raised $2Bn from Intercontinental Trade (ICE), the mum or dad firm of the New York Inventory Trade, bringing its valuation to $9Bn.
Prediction markets are additionally gaining consideration at Google. The corporate has confirmed that Google Finance will quickly show information from Polymarket and Kalshi, giving customers a strategy to verify market-based chances and see how merchants are pricing real-world occasions.
With hypothesis rising round a doable Gemini 3 launch subsequent week, Sundar Pichai saved his response transient. He posted two “pondering face” emojis on X and provided no additional rationalization.
— Sundar Pichai (@sundarpichai) November 14, 2025
His brief reply indicators that he’s holding again on particulars, prone to keep away from including to the rising hype.
Nonetheless, the upcoming launch issues for Google. The corporate is below stress to slim the space between itself and corporations that presently lead the AI subject, particularly OpenAI.
The broader business is watching this launch with actual curiosity, as a result of the response to Gemini 3 will form how critically Google can compete on the prime degree.
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How Dependable Are Prediction Markets In comparison with Polls and Professional Forecasts?
Enterprise Insider and different retailers report that the mannequin is predicted earlier than the tip of the 12 months.
They are saying Google is aiming for higher coding output, stronger reasoning expertise, and extra refined multimedia technology.
The replace can be anticipated to incorporate an improved model of the corporate’s Nano Banana picture system.
Pichai has already mentioned that Gemini 3 will arrive this 12 months. He has framed it as a part of Google’s push to slim the space with OpenAI after a protracted stretch when ChatGPT dominated public consideration.
That brings the headline query into focus: are prediction markets open to affect from high-profile figures?
Twenty years of educational analysis have proven that prediction markets sometimes produce pretty correct forecasts. In lots of circumstances, they’ve even outperformed polls and professional surveys.
However newer research level to a danger. They present {that a} single giant commerce, positioned on the proper second, can shift the worth in automated-market-maker programs in ways in which don’t absolutely unwind.
The impact can stick, particularly when different merchants deal with that value transfer as actual data as an alternative of noise.
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The submit Google CEO Responds to Polymarket Wager: Are Prediction Markets Susceptible To Superstar Manipulation? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
