Analysts Elevate ETF Approval Odds to 95%

Bloomberg ETF specialists James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have stated there’s a 95% likelihood that the U.S. Securities and Change Fee (SEC) will approve spot ETFs for XRP, Litecoin (LTC), and Solana (SOL) this 12 months.

The monetary watchdog is anticipated to resolve on the three proposals in October.

The New Approval Odds

In a Monday X submit, the analysts revealed that they’ve raised their odds for exchange-traded funds monitoring the three altcoins from 90% to 95%.

“We count on a wave of recent ETFs within the second half of 2025,” commented Seyffart.

He and Balchunas additionally gave a 90% likelihood for spot ETFs tied to Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), Hedera (HBAR), and Avalanche (AVAX). In the meantime, filings from Canary Capital for Sui (SUI) and Tron (TRX) obtained decrease estimates, at 60% and 50% respectively. SUI and TRX don’t but have any CFTC-regulated futures merchandise, and it’s nonetheless unclear whether or not the SEC considers them securities or not.

In June, Balchunas advised buyers to organize for a attainable “altcoin ETF summer season,” whereas Seyffart famous that the SEC would possibly approve ETFs monitoring broad crypto indexes as early as July. The specialists additionally talked about that the company might act early on SOL and staking-related ETF filings.

Their elevated optimism follows indicators of extra engagement from the SEC. A Blockworks report launched early final month revealed that the regulator had requested ETF issuers to submit up to date S-1 registration types and promised to reply inside 30 days. It additionally requested candidates to elucidate how they plan to deal with staking and in-kind redemptions.

Extra Developments

Elsewhere, the primary U.S.-based staked crypto ETF shall be launched this Wednesday. The REX Osprey SOL Staking ETF will enable buyers to earn yield from staking Solana.

This follows earlier delays because of the SEC’s considerations in regards to the construction of the providing. To fulfill diversification guidelines, the fund will make investments a minimum of 40% of its belongings in different crypto exchange-traded merchandise, primarily these listed outdoors the U.S.

Though the launch exhibits some progress, the monetary sector overseer has but to transfer ahead with Ethereum staking ETFs. It not too long ago postponed its resolution on the Bitwise Ether staking funding product and delayed approval for the Osprey Bitcoin Belief, which had utilized to transform right into a spot BTC ETF.

Bitwise had proposed updating its operational spot ETH ETF to incorporate staking rewards, permitting the fund to generate yield by means of Ethereum’s proof-of-stake system. Nonetheless, the SEC has since initiated a proper evaluation to guage potential dangers to buyers.