Pierre Rochard, VP of Analysis at Riot Platforms, one of many largest publicly traded Bitcoin mining firms and CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Firm says essentially the most persistent narrative about Bitcoin’s long-term safety—an alleged “finances shortfall” as block subsidies decline—is constructed on a class error. In a collection of posts on X immediately, August 15, he argues that critics conflate the principles of Bitcoin with the economics of settlement finality, and in doing so miss how the payment market, consumer controls, miner competitors, and issue changes work together to boost the price of assaults exactly when it issues.
Bitcoin’s Safety Funds Drawback Is Solved
“Bitcoin’s ‘safety finances’ is commonly framed by altcoiners as a looming shortfall as block subsidies halve,” Rochard wrote. “That framing mixes two various things. The foundations of Bitcoin (eg 21 million cap, validity of transactions, block weight limits) are secured by full nodes and personal keys. Miners don’t set or change these guidelines; they solely suggest blocks that match inside them. What mining buys is settlement finality: how expensive it’s to censor or reorder latest blocks.” The query, in his view, isn’t whether or not a hard and fast pot of cash exists to pay for safety, however whether or not the community could make reorgs and censorship uneconomic because the subsidy shrinks.
He rejects the notion—frequent in cross-chain comparisons—that Bitcoin’s “safety finances” is a static paycheck. “Opposite to what Ethereum influencers declare, Bitcoin’s finances for finality is NOT a hard and fast paycheck; it’s a market value that rises when wanted.” When marginal miners shut off after a halving, blocks gradual quickly and issue adjusts. When confirmations turn into scarce or unreliable, payment charges climb as customers compete for inclusion.
“At 1,000 sats/vB throughout ~1,000,000 vB, a single block’s charges are about 10 BTC—usually greater than the subsidy,” he famous, pointing again to “payment blow-offs in 2017 and 2021, and in Might 2023 a number of blocks the place charges alone exceeded the subsidy.” In observe, he says, miners “reply by filling blocks to seize these charges, not by leaving cash on the desk.”
A big a part of Rochard’s case is that customers will not be passive. Instruments like Change-By-Price and Youngster-Pays-For-Guardian enable wallets and receivers to “rebroadcast transactions with larger charges or connect a high-fee youngster to an unconfirmed mother or father, immediately elevating inclusion precedence.” That routing of rewards, he argues, “concentrates [them] on blocks that verify mother and father and makes omitted transactions a bounty for whichever miner defects from any censoring or undercutting technique.” Mining pool competitors operationalizes the sport concept: “when charges are wealthy and visual, every pool has a dominant incentive to defect first and declare them now, collapsing any cartel that tries to suppress or sequence transactions for nefarious functions.”
If assaults persist, he provides, receivers can increase the variety of confirmations required for high-value transfers, stretching the attacker’s time and power finances whereas pressing senders bid up charges to begin the clock instantly. “These logical user-side controls make sure that any sustained assault should burn rising assets in opposition to rising rewards for the trustworthy chain.” His synthesis: “nodes lock the principles; issue changes re-equilibrate participation; the payment market costs scarce blockspace on demand; RBF/CPFP and mining pool competitors route income to the parent-confirming chain; and affirmation coverage dials assurance as excessive as wanted.”
From his perspective, the empirical document—“payment spikes throughout stress, miners maximizing payment inclusion, and fast reversion to regular as soon as backlogs clear”—already demonstrates the dynamic. “As subsidy declines, charges don’t need to be completely excessive; they have to be responsive when finality is beneath risk. That responsiveness is strictly what we observe.”
Might BTC Miners Be Bribed?
Addressing a associated meme—that Bitcoin would want a “bribe oracle” to know when to match an attacker’s payoff—Rochard says the premise is unsuitable. “Brief reply: there isn’t any ‘bribe oracle,’ and you do not want one. The community doesn’t attempt to divine the bribe’s dimension. It units a visual bounty for trustworthy habits and lets miners select the upper anticipated payoff.” In his framing, “public bounty beats secret promise.” Throughout censorship or a reorg try, wallets and receivers increase charges on the suppressed transactions, making a pot that’s “publicly seen and instantly collectible by the primary miner who confirms the mother or father.”
In contrast, “the bribe… is personal, unsure, and sometimes conditional on multi-party success. Rational miners evaluate a positive payout now to a dangerous off-chain IOU later.” Crucially, “you do not want to match the bribe, solely its risk-adjusted worth,” as a result of any personal provide is discounted by enforcement uncertainty, reputational and authorized threat, and the chance a coalition fails when somebody defects. The payment bounty “auto-scales with out an oracle” as backlogs develop and customers rebid; “each miner sees the identical mempool value alerts and may defect at any second to take the pot.”
That incentive makes “cartels brittle,” since “the primary pool to interrupt ranks earns the excessive charges and ends the assault,” forcing any briber to maintain paying extra events as defections loom. And to maintain a 51% marketing campaign, “bribes have to be repeated, not one-off… for so long as customers maintain elevating confirmations and costs.” The one really “trustless” bribe, he says, is an on-chain one—“which is only a very giant payment hooked up to a selected block end result”—and that “collapses again into the general public payment market.”
The change drew a problem from an Ethereum group member, who argued that Rochard’s logic “solely works if the attacker is censoring,” and raised considerations about double-spends, “chaos sowing,” ASIC-level compromises, and pool collusion. Rochard separated two classes—“‘censoring ceaselessly’” versus “inflicting chaos for some time”—and argued neither is “simple or one-way.”
Threats Of A Reorg
On censorship and shallow reorgs, he reiterated that “with ~51 p.c an attacker can attempt to exclude targets or reorg shallow historical past,” however as provide of confirmations drops, “pressing customers rebid with RBF or CPFP, and the subsequent parent-confirming block turns into very useful. A single block at 1,000 sats per vB on ~1,000,000 vB pays about 10 BTC in charges. That seen bounty provides each non-attacking pool a dominant incentive to defect.” On double-spends and turbulence, he pointed to real-world habits: “Exchanges and huge receivers already increase affirmation counts when reorg threat rises… pushing a would-be attacker into an extended, costly marketing campaign reasonably than a fast hit.”
Colluding swimming pools, he argued, face a payout-competition drawback—“A colluding pool that omits high-fee transactions underpays its personal hashers and shortly bleeds hashrate to rivals. Miners can repoint hash inside minutes”—and he highlighted protocol-level tendencies that cut back coordination energy: “Stratum v2 job negotiation additional reduces pool-level management by letting miners select their very own templates, which makes coordinated censorship even more durable to maintain.”
On {hardware} compromise eventualities, Rochard framed them as throughput shocks reasonably than rule failures: “A big outage would gradual blocks for a number of epochs, then issue steps down and unaffected miners earn extra. The outage additionally produces the identical payment spike and defection incentives that pull extra hash on-line.”
So-called “vampire” assaults like on Monero this week that redirect exterior compute are, in his view, “a lot more durable on Bitcoin than on small CPU- or GPU-mined cash,” as a result of “Bitcoin’s SHA-256 hash is usually tied up in devoted ASICs already mining BTC,” leaving no low-cost, huge rental pool that may be quietly redirected. The upshot is that any credible, sustained assault would require “majority hash, unwavering cartel self-discipline regardless of a rising payment bounty for defection, exchanges that refuse to boost confirmations, and customers who refuse to rebid,” plus a value crash giant sufficient to outpace the attacker’s burn charge. “That stack of assumptions runs in opposition to how miners, exchanges, and customers truly behave.”
His backside line compresses the argument into one sentence: “Bitcoin doesn’t assume miners are altruists. It assumes they’re paid to finish your assault.” In Rochard’s telling, tip assaults cut back the provision of confirmations, customers with cash at stake increase charges, non-attacking miners defect to seize them, receivers lengthen affirmation home windows, and issue resets the baseline. The “safety finances drawback,” on this view, isn’t a gap to be plugged with perpetual inflation however “a market course of that scales up the price of assaults exactly when it issues.”
At press time, BTC traded $117,746.
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