The on-chain analytics agency Glassnode has revealed how a preferred fantasy surrounding the decline of the Bitcoin change provide isn’t actual.
Out there Bitcoin Provide Hasn’t Really Dropped A lot
In its newest weekly report, Glassnode has mentioned a couple of false impression that’s broadly held within the Bitcoin neighborhood across the decline within the Steadiness on Exchanges throughout this cycle.
The “Steadiness on Exchanges” right here refers to an on-chain indicator that, as its title suggests, measures the full quantity of the cryptocurrency that’s sitting within the wallets of all centralized exchanges.
Typically, one of many important the explanation why buyers deposit to the exchanges is for selling-related functions, so the Steadiness on Exchanges is usually checked out because the out there promote provide of the asset. Will increase within the metric, subsequently, are thought of bearish for BTC’s worth, as they counsel extra holders are prepared to half with their tokens. Equally, declines might be assumed to be bullish.
Now, right here is the chart for the Bitcoin Steadiness on Exchanges shared by the analytics agency within the report:
The worth of the metric seems to have seen a plunge in latest months | Supply: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 4, 2025
As displayed within the above graph, the Bitcoin Steadiness on Exchanges was sitting at 3.1 million BTC in July 2024, however right now, it has declined to simply 2.74 million BTC. It is a vital lower and has made many consider that this represents the creation of a ‘provide shock‘ for the asset.
Glassnode thinks in any other case, nevertheless, because the analytics agency has defined:
Whereas many interpret this as a type of provide shock attributable to a mass of cash being withdrawn by particular person buyers—probably creating upward worth strain—we consider nearly all of this decline stems from cash reshuffling into ETF wallets managed by custodians like Coinbase.
The spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are funding automobiles that had been launched within the US at the start of final yr. They provide an alternate technique of gaining publicity to the asset, in a mode that’s acquainted to conventional buyers. This mode of BTC investing has rapidly gained reputation and right now, the spot ETFs management a notable quantity of the availability.
“After the SEC accredited Bitcoin Spot ETFs in January 2024, eight of 11 spot ETFs chosen Coinbase as their custodian,” notes Glassnode. “As demand for ETF merchandise picked up, a big migration of cash from change wallets into Coinbase’s institutional custodian wallets occurred.”
Beneath is the chart shared by the analytics agency that exhibits the pattern within the holdings of those spot ETFs.
Seems just like the ETFs mixed maintain 1.69 million BTC in the meanwhile | Supply: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 4, 2025
An attention-grabbing image seems if the Bitcoin holdings of the spot ETFs are included with these of the exchanges.
How the mixed stability on exchanges and ETFs has modified over the previous few years | Supply: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 4, 2025
From the graph, it’s obvious that this mixed indicator is sitting at a price of three.04 million BTC proper now. That is about the identical degree as the place the market was initially of 2024, proper earlier than the spot ETFs had been launched.
Primarily based on this, the analytics agency has concluded that the obvious decline within the Bitcoin Steadiness on Exchanges is extra more likely to symbolize a shift in market construction, somewhat than a lower within the out there promote provide.
BTC Value
Bitcoin has made restoration of about 3% up to now day, which has taken its worth past $105,000.
The value of the coin appears to have retraced its latest plunge | Supply: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured picture from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
