Locked token holders have skilled a median drawdown of almost 50% for his or her locked positions in comparison with over-the-counter (OTC) valuations in Could 2024.
In line with knowledge printed by STIX founder Taran Sabharwal on April 22, holders might have exited their positions at double the present spot costs the earlier 12 months.
Sabharwal shared knowledge evaluating totally diluted valuation (FDV) estimates from Could 2024 towards present FDVs as of April 2025 for main tokens, together with JITO, BERA, ZRO, WLD, TIA, IO, W, ZK, EIGEN, SCR, and BLAST.
Widespread devaluations throughout high tokens
Among the many initiatives tracked, almost all confirmed appreciable valuation declines. SCR and BLAST recorded the most important year-over-year drawdowns at -85% and -88%, respectively.
EIGEN adopted carefully with a -75% drop. Different tokens, comparable to ZK (-64%), W (-50%), IO (-48%), and TIA (-44%), additionally posted substantial declines relative to their locked OTC valuations from the earlier 12 months.
Solely JITO posted a rise, with a +75% achieve relative to final 12 months’s valuations, standing out as an exception in an in any other case broadly damaging atmosphere for locked token holders.
In line with Sabharwal, the disparity between OTC valuations and present spot costs highlights the dangers of investing in illiquid, locked positions throughout early-stage token rounds.
Whereas these early investments are sometimes structured with the expectation of long-term upside, market volatility and project-specific components over the previous 12 months have led to substantial underperformance relative to preliminary valuations.
In the identical interval, the 22 sectors within the crypto market, along with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), skilled a median correction of 40.7%, based mostly on Artemis knowledge. That is almost 20% higher than the efficiency of locked tokens.
Implications for token markets and early buyers
The info means that many early-stage token buyers who dedicated to locked positions might have missed higher exit alternatives within the secondary market all through 2024.
Locked tokens sometimes include vesting schedules or switch restrictions, which forestall quick liquidity and expose holders to market shifts throughout the lock-up interval.
The info shared by Sabharwal additionally displays broader market circumstances affecting totally diluted valuations throughout the crypto sector. Newer initiatives face intensified stress in secondary markets in comparison with their preliminary fundraising rounds.
