A $514 million capital increase and partnerships in Japan and Dubai are pushing the eVTOL dream nearer to actuality, however certification delays may floor the funding thesis.
Most traders see flying taxis as science fiction. However whereas skeptics debate whether or not electrical vertical takeoff and touchdown (eVTOL) plane will ever transfer past tech demos, Joby Aviation (JOBY 0.74%) is assembling its first certification-ready plane and reserving passengers for 2026 flights in Dubai. The inventory is up 117% 12 months thus far as of Oct. 9, but the corporate stays years from profitability.
Is Joby Aviation inventory a purchase proper now, or is the valuation flying too excessive? Let’s take a more in-depth have a look at the eVTOL pioneer’s improvement path, steadiness sheet, and core worth proposition to search out out.
Picture supply: Getty Photos.
The plane economics
Joby has spent greater than a decade designing an all-electric, piloted eVTOL plane that may carry 4 passengers at speeds as much as 200 mph over ranges of 100 miles per cost. The corporate says that greater than 99% of city routes in cities like New York and Los Angeles fall inside this vary, enabling excessive plane utilization. The pitch: journeys as much as 10 instances sooner than driving, with a near-silent overhead flight and low working prices from electrical propulsion.
The addressable market relies on who you ask. Morgan Stanley initiatives city air mobility reaching $1 trillion by 2040 and $9 trillion by 2050. Extra conservative forecasts put the 2030s market within the tens of billions.
Aviation Week estimates that roughly 1,000 cumulative eVTOL plane shall be delivered by 2030, 10,000 by 2040, and 30,000 by 2050. That gradual early ramp displays actuality: Regulators want time to approve new plane classes, cities want vertiport infrastructure, and passengers want persuading.
Joby plans to fabricate, function, and promote its plane by means of three routes: owned and operated air taxi providers, direct plane gross sales, and partnered providers or joint ventures. The vertically built-in mannequin goals to seize most worth by controlling your entire buyer expertise.
Certification progress and go-to-market
The FAA does not hand out airworthiness certificates rapidly. Joby accomplished Stage 3 of the five-stage kind certification course of in 2024 and reported being about 70% by means of Stage 4 as of August 2025. With solely Stage 5 remaining (ultimate paperwork and issuance of the kind certificates), the corporate is transferring nearer to approval.
Trade observers count on that, if progress continues at this tempo, Joby may obtain full FAA kind certification round 2026, aligning with its goal to begin preliminary business operations subsequent 12 months. Furthermore, the current Blade Air Mobility acquisition accelerates the corporate’s “go-to-market” plan by bringing terminals, routes, and model presence in key areas.
The money burn actuality
Joby has incurred web working losses and unfavorable money flows yearly since its inception in 2009. As of June 30, 2025, the corporate carried an accrued deficit of $2.26 billion. On that date, Joby held $991 million in money in opposition to the guided 2025 money use of $500 million to $540 million, excluding the Blade acquisition.
On Oct. 7, Joby introduced an roughly $514 million underwritten fairness providing. The capital increase provides the corporate extra time to finish certification and scale manufacturing in Ohio, nevertheless it dilutes present shareholders — a recurring sample for pre-revenue aerospace packages burning a whole lot of hundreds of thousands yearly.
The inventory’s valuation displays excessive optimism. It trades at roughly 520 instances projected 2026 gross sales. Buyers are paying for a future the place Joby operates hundreds of plane producing important quantities of income, not the present actuality of zero business income and big working losses.
The funding resolution
For aggressive traders snug with pre-revenue danger and multiyear timelines, Joby represents publicity to the city air mobility theme (eVTOLs used as air taxis), if it turns into a actuality within the late 2020s. For cautious traders, the extra prudent method is ready for certification completion and first income earlier than paying a nosebleed valuation.
