Main markets ended the week with a cautious, barely risk-off tone. The minutes of the most recent FOMC assembly confirmed that US central financial institution policymakers stay divided on whether or not one other price lower on the December assembly is warranted. The dialogue is unfolding in opposition to a backdrop of comparatively secure macro information: the November business-activity surveys affirm continued enlargement within the US financial system, whereas euro space indicators stay above the 50.0 mark, though they proceed to replicate weak spot within the manufacturing sector. In consequence, by late November the scenario will be characterised as regular however uneven world financial development.
📈 EUR/USD
Towards this backdrop, EUR/USD completed Friday at 1.1513 after spending the week in a 1.1490–1.1624 vary. On 21 November the pair briefly rose above 1.1550, however stronger-than-expected US business-activity information and US Treasury yields pushed it decrease. In consequence, the US greenback gained greater than 100 factors over the week. The expansion and yield differential stays reasonably beneficial for the greenback. The 1.1480-1.1500 space now represents the closest assist zone. A decisive break beneath it could open the best way towards 1.1380-1.1400 and improve the danger of a deeper pullback towards the degrees of this spring. The primary robust resistance is situated within the 1.1620–1.1655 zone, adopted by 1.1720-1.1730. A break above these ranges would counsel a resumption of the pair’s long-term advance towards the 1.2000-1.2200 area.
🟠 BTC/USD
Bitcoin continues to say no quickly. On Friday it fell to 80,540, and after setting a brand new all-time excessive at 126,310 has misplaced greater than 35% in simply six weeks. Stress has intensified attributable to compelled liquidations of margin longs, profit-taking, decreased threat urge for food and expectations of much less aggressive Fed easing. Flows into BTC ETFs have slowed or turned detrimental as buyers transfer into the greenback and high-quality bonds. The closest assist lies within the 75,000-80,000 zone; a break beneath it could open the best way towards the consolidation vary of spring–autumn 2024 at 53,000-75,000. Overhead, the closest robust resistance is at 92,000–95,000, and solely a sustained rise above 99,000-105,000 would revive hopes for a return to a bullish development.
🛢 Brent
Brent crude futures declined over the week from 63.85 to 61.88 {dollars} per barrel, comparable to the low of 30 Could. Stress stems from plentiful provide and rising US inventories. Technically, Brent remains to be buying and selling throughout the descending channel of late October–November. Sellers are presently energetic close to 64.00-66.00, which is the closest resistance. Patrons re-emerge across the 60.00-61.00 assist space. The following assist zone beneath 60.00, at 58.00-59.00, corresponds to the lows of March–April this yr.
🏆 XAU/USD
Gold stays in a consolidation part, buying and selling across the 4,000-dollar Pivot Level. This behaviour highlights that, in contrast to the falling bitcoin, the metallic serves as a real retailer of worth slightly than a short-term speculative instrument. This week the XAU/USD pair closed at 4,066, maintaining the earlier state of affairs intact. If the greenback strengthens additional, one other decline towards 3,885-3,900 can’t be dominated out. A fall beneath 3,625 would negate the bullish state of affairs and open the best way towards 3,250-3,430. An increase above 4,250 would affirm the resumption of the bullish rally.
📊 Conclusion
The week of 24-28 November might be pushed by key US information releases and Fed communication. Markets are awaiting the US Q3 GDP revision (26 November), private revenue, spending and PCE information (27 November), in addition to housing-market experiences and consumer-confidence indicators (25-27 November). These releases will assist assess the likelihood of a December price lower and the anticipated tempo of financial easing in 2026. The baseline state of affairs: for EUR/USD, BTC/USD and Brent – impartial with a average bearish bias. For gold – a buy-the-dip bias whereas XAU/USD stays above roughly 3,900 {dollars}.
