Hello. Gold broke the higher restrict in 2024. And it nonetheless exhibits no signal of stopping. New threats of tariffs from Trump and a failed peace deal add extra uncertainty and, therefore, might push Gold up for the following few weeks. I do not suppose Gold will probably be rising eternally, although. Because the pic exhibits, the final time it rose so shortly was in 2020. It misplaced a 3rd of its acquire within the subsequent 12 months. I don’t suppose it’ll begin rolling again in March. I’ll keep watch over the political occasions this month, and I’ll replace this evaluation firstly of April.
What about Oil? As we are able to see within the pic, Oil has already tried 3 instances to interrupt the 50-week common, and all in useless. Oil continues to go down since its peak in 2022. It’s the tariffs that threaten to decelerate the financial progress. It’s nonetheless unclear whether or not Trump will apply tariffs to “automobiles and all different issues” from the EU. And it’s nonetheless unclear whether or not Trump’s promise to “drill it, child” will probably be carried out this 12 months. If these two occasions really happen, Oil might stoop right down to about 40-50 USD per barrel.
The financial progress can’t choose up, however the recession is over. Powell and Lagarde take into account additional price cuts. EURUSD is under the 50-week common, and it begins wanting up. If the world has had sufficient of the conflicts and the recession is over, it’s fairly the time for EURUSD to go away from the 1.0 parity and obtain its first objective of 1.20. My forecast is that EURUSD will attain 1.10 in March.
