The S&P500 (ES) slid almost 2.5% Friday, closing simply above the 2025 low shaped mid March. Final week’s pink weekly candle bearishly engulfed the prior inexperienced weekly candle, suggesting an finish to the Bear Flag consolidation of the previous 3 weeks. Odds are elevated for an extension of the Bear Flag this week to a contemporary 2025 low. The March excessive and low might be decrease than the February excessive and low which had been in flip, decrease than the December equivalents. The highly effective Bull Market extension from October 2022 has ended, as seen simpler with the lengthy March pink candle physique and the month-to-month MACD attempting to negatively cross. Bearishly for the remainder of 2025, the three month MACD histogram is tilting decrease with the MACD blue line flattening. Regardless, bears shouldn’t rule out some brief overlaying as early as Tuesday with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings or Wednesday with the US ADP Non-Farm employment change. By Thursday, odds rise once more for heightened volatility with the US unemployment claims, ISM Providers PMI and Friday with the extremely anticipated US common earnings, non-farm employment change, unemployment price and Fed Chair Powell feedback. The weekly and each day RSI, Stochastics and MACD are tiring or steadily sloping down. I’m trying to enter brief within the pink zone (of the each day chart), concentrating on the inexperienced zone for Friday. The amber/yellow zone is the place I would place a cease if I used to be a swing dealer (though in my private account with which I seldom maintain in a single day I generally set my stops tighter).
Weekly/each day/4hr
