Like myself, maybe the Bollinger Band was one of many first indicators you found firstly of your buying and selling journey.
In spite of everything, it’s purported to make all the things tremendous simple…
…simply purchase low and promote excessive, proper!?…
Effectively, certain, there could also be some fortunate wins at the beginning.
However as time goes on… you begin experiencing losses…
Worse but, they will come alongside way more often with the Bollinger Band!
So, you cease utilizing the indicator and doubtless begin studying about RSI… shifting averages…
…you begin system hopping.
I’m guessing it might be a well-known state of affairs.
It was for me, anyway!
However, what if I informed you there’s a provable manner the Bollinger Band works persistently in actual markets?
Not simply in earnings, however statistically, too?
Effectively, that’s what I’m about to point out you on this information.
Particularly, you’ll be taught:
- A fast refresher on how the Bollinger Band works and the way quite a lot of merchants use it
- Timeless buying and selling rules on the right way to construct a working Bollinger Band buying and selling system
- The principles of the Bollinger Band buying and selling system and why they exist
- An entire metric of the outcomes of the Bollinger Band buying and selling system
You prepared?
Then let’s get began…
How the Bollinger Band works and the right way to use it
The indicator just about consists of three issues:
- Higher Band
- Center Band
- Decrease Band
Beginning on the coronary heart of this indicator is a 20-period shifting common…
The indicator works by including a typical deviation of two to the higher band and subtracting a typical deviation of two from the decrease band…
Mainly, it provides “distance” to the shifting common on the center band.
Now, how do merchants interpret it?
Effectively, if the worth is on the higher band, it’s thought-about costly, and regarded low cost when it’s on the decrease band…
These examples can then be used to introduce a few methods, comparable to “shopping for low and promoting excessive”…
It’s basically the textbook strategy to utilizing this indicator.
However, whereas it sounds nice in principle…
…how does it carry out in actuality?
Hmm, not at all times in the best way you’d anticipate!…
As you may see, in down developments, the worth retains getting cheaper and cheaper.
Think about if you happen to purchase on the decrease band and also you’re nonetheless holding your commerce, hoping that the worth will bounce again greater… not a good time!
Which leaves you questioning once more…
“What, if the Bollinger Band doesn’t work on trending markets…”
“What’s the purpose of this information?”
“Does the indicator work in any respect?”
Effectively, indicators are solely ever a small a part of a working buying and selling technique.
When you focus solely on the Bollinger Band, you’ll miss out on the right way to combine it right into a worthwhile buying and selling system!
Which is why within the subsequent part…
…I’ll clarify the muse behind how the system I’m going to share with you made +7,605% during the last 30 years.
So, let’s take step one on studying how this method works.
Primary guidelines and ideas behind the Bollinger Band buying and selling system
Let’s get straight to the purpose, we could?
The Bollinger Band buying and selling system that I’ll share with you primarily trades shares.
Why the inventory markets?
The primary motive is that the inventory market can transfer like a tide.
Which means that at any time when the markets are in a bull run…
…a whole bunch of alternatives come up within the inventory markets!
And that is what the created system works on: using and making the most of these “tides” out there.
Now with that mentioned…
What sort of shares are most fitted?
Many of the textbook examples of the Bollinger Band indicator look one thing like this…
In order that they’re implying it’s an indicator greatest traded in a spread.
However what if the Bollinger Band may reap the benefits of an uptrend?
Effectively, let’s preserve constructing as much as that!
However for now…
Begin trying to find shares that pattern.
That’s proper, not ranging shares, however trending ones!
Why?
As a result of shares which might be in an uptrend are already prone to proceed greater.
You wish to hop in and wager on a number one horse!
And the most effective half is that everytime you spot a trending inventory, it already implies that the general sentiment of the market in that inventory is nice.
As for a way the corporate has been managed, or how constant it’s in its earnings progress…
…all (most likely) priced into the chart already!
So now, with the inventory chosen, what’s subsequent?
How do you utilize the Bollinger Band, and why?
All indicators are instruments – they’re only one side of getting issues achieved.
Don’t you agree?
The primary query you have to at all times ask is:
“What sort of setups are you seeking to enter trades?”
Which, on this case…
…it’s shares which might be trending:..
Importantly, you additionally wish to search for pullback setups, as a way to “purchase low and promote excessive” in favour of the general pattern…
With that well-defined, the following query chances are you’ll ask is…
“Which indicator may help me discover these setups and entries systematically?”
Now that may be a nice query.
Fortunately, it’s going to be the Bollinger Band!
In what manner?
Merely put, by coming into pullbacks on the decrease band on prime of a trending inventory…
Now, whether or not or not you utilize the Bollinger Band, it’s essential to deal with all indicators as a instrument.
In creating any system, you need to at all times preserve your thoughts as structured as doable.
First, work out what setup you wish to commerce, then discover the suitable indicator that can assist you search for and enter these setups.
Make sense?
Good, as a result of now comes the enjoyable half…
The Bollinger Band buying and selling system itself.
Within the subsequent sections, discover the whole guidelines of this method, in addition to the outcomes, so you may determine for your self.
You prepared?
Then let’s get on with it!
The entire guidelines of the Bollinger Band buying and selling system
One factor to notice is that the buying and selling system you’re about to be taught is predicated on imply reversion buying and selling.
This implies you purchase shares on a pullback after which promote them on the rally.
It appears to be like one thing like this…
With that in thoughts, listed here are the foundations of this Bollinger Band buying and selling system…
Markets traded:
Shares within the Russell 1000 index
Timeframe:
Each day
Threat administration:
20% capital for every inventory and a most of 5 positions
Buying and selling guidelines:
- The inventory is above the 200-day shifting common
- The inventory closes under the decrease Bollinger Band
- Place a 3% purchase restrict order under the final closing value
- If there are too many shares to select from, choose those which have elevated probably the most in value during the last 100 days (standards to rank shares from strongest to weakest)
- In case your order is crammed, promote when the 2-day RSI crosses above 50 or after 10 buying and selling days (standards to outline the promote sign)
And simply so as to add, the Bollinger Band settings are: 20-day shifting common and a pair of.5 normal deviation.
I do know it’s lots to soak up abruptly.
So, let me stroll you thru every of these guidelines.
The inventory is above the 200-day shifting common
Recall that you simply’re attempting to commerce pullbacks on shares which might be in an uptrend.
And as , there are 100 methods to outline what an “uptrend” is!
So to make this definition systematic, merely use a 200-day shifting common…
Which means if a inventory’s value is above the 200-period shifting common, it meets the primary criterion!
Add it to the checklist!
And if it’s under the 200-period MA?
Skip the inventory.
However, is there a straightforward solution to filter for these?
Effectively, you should utilize TradingView’s free scanning instrument!…
First, set your market to the Russell 1000…
And apply the shifting common filter…
Set it to 200-period, so it solely filters the right shares…
And with that, you’ve already bought a robust filter for this method!
Now don’t fear, as I am going by means of the foundations, I’ll proceed to construct upon this screener so you may comply with.
With that mentioned, what’s the following factor to search for?
The inventory has closed under the decrease Bollinger Band
That is the place the Bollinger Band indicator is available in.
It’s used to systematically outline a pullback – ready for the worth to “shut” under the decrease band…
Within the TradingView screener, go forward and apply the Bollinger Band indicator filter…
And at last, set it to solely search for shares the place the worth is under the decrease band…
Which means that on-top of the 200-period shifting common filter, this screener will solely search for shares if the decrease band is above the worth, moderately, if the worth is under the decrease band.
With that in place, if the inventory makes an in depth under the decrease band, what’s subsequent?
If there are too many shares to select from, choose those which have elevated probably the most in value during the last 100 days
One advantage of the inventory markets is that when issues are going nice, numerous alternatives come up.
Which means that in a bull market, shares are trending more often than not.
Nonetheless, a buying and selling portfolio can solely deal with a lot.
This results in the query… which one to purchase?
Effectively, this rule particularly solutions that!
Based mostly on the screener outcomes, you may see the next…
So what it’s important to do now could be get every inventory’s “fee of change” worth.
Particularly, you’d have to tug up the speed of change indicator and set it at a 100-period…
Based mostly on what may be seen within the above instance, REGN has a ROC worth of -31.73
Now, though you should receive the 100-day ROC worth for all of the shares listed in your screener outcomes your self, for the sake of this information, I’ve offered some instance values for you right here!
- REGN: -31.73
- STZ: -19.66
- TPL: -8.01
- STLD: +8.77
- A: -8.03
- COO: -7.54
- CACI: +1.87
- S: -22.8
What you should do subsequent is rank them primarily based on their values:
- STLD: +8.77
- CACI: +1.87
- COO: -7.54
- TPL: -8.01
- BF.A: -8.03
- STZ: -19.66
- S: -22.8
- REGN: -31.73
Recall, this Bollinger Band buying and selling system has a most of 5 trades.
This implies you need to allocate not more than 20% of your capital to every inventory.
So, it is a manner of discovering out which shares are most deserving of your cash!
And primarily based on the rankings on this instance…
You’d should prioritize coming into STLD, CACI, COO, TPL, and BF.A! (and ignore the remainder.)
Now, if, for instance, you have already got 3 open trades, then all you should do is to solely enter the highest 2 on the checklist.
So to reiterate – rank shares from strongest to weakest primarily based on their 100-day fee of change.
Then, prioritize buying and selling them primarily based on the rating till you attain 5 complete open trades!
With that out of the best way, let’s now transfer on to entries and exits.
The very best piece of recommendation I’ve is…
Place a 3% purchase restrict order under the final closing value
Regardless of the final closing value is, because the inventory closes under the decrease band…
Simply subtract 3% from the worth, and you then get your restrict order value!…
The explanation you do that is that you really want the inventory to come back to you even additional.
There must be sellers nonetheless looking for the underside, just for the patrons to swoop the worth again in like an prolonged rubber band…
Primarily, in case your restrict order didn’t get triggered…
…take the order out and do your scans once more the following day.
Make certain no restrict order lasts greater than a day!
Acquired it?
Total, this rule is a fairly nice criterion to determine oversold shares.
So, now that you simply’ve entered the commerce, how do you handle it?
In spite of everything, there’s no level in coming into a inventory if you happen to don’t know the right way to exit it, proper?
Importantly, no “intestine emotions” essential right here, both…
In case your order is crammed, promote when the 2-day RSI crosses above 50 or after 10 buying and selling days
I do know, this text is in regards to the Bollinger Bands.
So, why the heck is the RSI sliding into this text?
Effectively, the 200-period shifting common makes certain the shares being traded are in an uptrend.
With that in place, the Bollinger Band helps you enter and search for pullback setups.
The RSI indicator helps work out exits.
Recall, the concept of this technique is to seize pullbacks…
On the identical time, you don’t wish to overstay into the commerce, and at greatest, solely seize the energy of that pullback setup.”…
And this, my pal, is what the RSI indicator is for
When you’re within the commerce, watch for the worth to shut above RSI 50…
Then, exit the following day on the market’s “opening”…
Oh, and don’t overlook plan B.
Simply in case the inventory doesn’t do something, there also needs to be a time-stop.
If the worth doesn’t shut above the RSI 50 after 10 day?
Exit on the 11th day.
And sure, in case your restrict order will get triggered, it already counts as the primary day!
Make sense?
So now to deal with the questions lurking in the back of your thoughts…
Does this technique work?
If it really works, what sort of returns are you able to anticipate?
Bollinger Band Buying and selling System Outcomes
Discover how I at all times say “system” all through this information?
It’s intentional, as a result of clearly there’s multiple side concerned right here.
Nonetheless, the foundations are goal and clearly outlined, which means it may be simply examined.
On this case, let’s backtest it from 1995 to 2024.
This set of information implies that the technique will present its efficiency, even by means of a number of monetary crises!
And naturally, this method operates within the Russell 1000 universe.
P.S. the info additionally consists of shares which might be already delisted in addition to shares that got here out and in of the Russell 1000 index.
So, listed here are the outcomes…
- Internet revenue: +7,577.84%
- Variety of trades: 1365
- Common Annual return: +15.56%
- Most drawdown: -23.20%
- Successful fee:94%
- Payoff ratio:74
As you may see, this method solely had 2 dropping years out of all 30, and if you happen to take a look at the statistics, this method has a win fee of 66%.
That’s one heck of a system!
I imply, certain, there are some mediocre years…
However total, it’s clear the system has an edge within the markets.
Nonetheless, as with all methods, there are weaknesses.
Any methods can have their dropping streaks.
So, for transparency, right here’s an underwater fairness curve of this method…
Mainly, it exhibits how usually the Bollinger Band buying and selling system goes right into a dropping streak and for a way lengthy it stays there earlier than it breaks even once more.
And there you go!
An entire Bollinger Band buying and selling system that works within the markets!
Now at this level, all that’s left is so that you can apply the system, which admittedly is the toughest half.
As a result of as time goes on, you should develop a full understanding of this technique.
Which, at this level, you may begin questioning…
“Why this indicator?”
“Would the system nonetheless work if I modified the settings?”
“How about buying and selling this method within the S&P 500? Will the system nonetheless work?”
Relaxation assured, I’ve created an FAQ part, which possible comprises the solutions!…
Regularly Requested Questions
Some generally requested questions in regards to the Bollinger Bands buying and selling system…
What sort of order do I take advantage of to enter the commerce?
As per the foundations of the technique, at all times use a restrict order.
In case your restrict order doesn’t get triggered for at the moment’s session, for instance, then the restrict order should expire.
Mainly, no purchase restrict order lasts greater than sooner or later.
Why do you utilize the Russell 1000 as a substitute of the S&P 500?
There’s no specific motive.
You should use the S&P 500, and the buying and selling system will nonetheless work!
With regards to the 200-period shifting common, do I take advantage of a easy or exponential shifting common?
I take advantage of a easy shifting common however to be sincere, it doesn’t matter.
You should use an exponential or weighted common, and the buying and selling system will nonetheless work!
The idea behind it’s what issues, not the parameters.
I’d be nervous if a buying and selling system broke down merely due to a parameter change!
Does the Bollinger Band buying and selling system work for brief promoting utilizing an reverse set of buying and selling guidelines, which means you quick shares on the higher band?
I’ve backtested this extensively, and sadly…
It doesn’t work.
Would this buying and selling system work for Foreign exchange markets?
Completely different markets have totally different behaviours.
So, if you wish to commerce this method on different markets, these markets should have a mean-reverting behaviour or it received’t work.
What does place measurement 20% imply?
It means 20% of your capital can be used to purchase a inventory.
For instance, let’s say you’ve $100,000 capital and you should purchase shares A, B, C, ,D and E.
This implies you’ll allocate $20,000 to shares A, B, C, D, and E.
After which, all of your buying and selling capital can be used up, and also you’ll not take any new positions (even when there’s a sound setup).
Isn’t it harmful to commerce with no cease loss?
Though you’re buying and selling with no cease loss, you’ve a time cease of 10 buying and selling days.
So, if the exit sign is just not met inside 10 buying and selling days, you’ll exit the commerce on the open of the eleventh buying and selling day.
Additionally, so that you can lose all of your buying and selling capital, each inventory you purchase should drop to $0.
It’s doable however unlikely as you’re buying and selling shares within the Russell 1000 (that are the 1000 largest shares within the USA).
You rank shares in response to their Fee of Change (ROC). Is there a minimal ROC worth you’re taking a look at?
No, there’s no minimal worth for it.
If the screener outcomes present a inventory with a unfavorable fee of change, do I nonetheless take the commerce?
Sure, you continue to take the commerce despite the fact that the inventory has a unfavorable fee of change
How a lot beginning capital do you should begin buying and selling with this method?
You need to have no less than $3,000 to commerce the Bollinger Band buying and selling system.
But when your dealer permits you to commerce fractional shares, then you may open an account smaller than $3,000
What if the inventory value hole is greater than 3% decrease? Do I nonetheless purchase the inventory?
Sure, you’ll nonetheless purchase the inventory, albeit at a lower cost (under your restrict order).
Additionally, flip OFF pre-market buying and selling. Most platforms have it turned off by default, but when yours is on, please swap it to OFF. If not, you’ll find yourself shopping for the inventory at the next value.
Now, right here’s one secret that I wish to inform you:
That is simply one of many working methods.
What was mentioned right here is mean-reversion buying and selling; nevertheless, there are additionally trend-following methods and breakout buying and selling methods.
All with an edge within the markets!
Now, think about if you happen to may commerce a number of (uncorrelated) buying and selling methods that work.
It’s like having a number of streams of long-term earnings, proper?
So, if you wish to be taught extra about it, then there’s a brand new e-book being launched referred to as Buying and selling Methods That Work.
On this e-book, you’ll get the total bundle.
It comprises the system I shared with you at the moment however a lot improved, and likewise three different methods.
When you’re , then you may test it out right here.
With that mentioned…
I wish to know what you assume.
Do you assume that methods buying and selling is the “best” solution to discover an edge out there?
If that’s the case, do you propose to develop your system sometime?
Or attempt to commerce one which already works after which work from there?
Let me know your ideas within the feedback under!
