Thursday, October 16, 2025
HomeForexUSD/JPY Forecast: US Credit score Downgrade Weighs on Greenback

USD/JPY Forecast: US Credit score Downgrade Weighs on Greenback


  • The USD/JPY forecast reveals additional greenback weak point.
  • US client sentiment got here in at 50.8 in comparison with expectations of 53.1.
  • Trump’s tariff threats brought about some uncertainty available in the market.

The USD/JPY forecast reveals additional greenback weak point after a downgrade to the US authorities’s credit standing. On the similar time, market members have been apprehensive about progress on commerce negotiations between the US and its buying and selling companions. 

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The greenback fell on Friday after information revealed weak client sentiment. In accordance with the report, client sentiment got here in at 50.8 in comparison with expectations of 53.1. The surprising drop revealed that customers have been nonetheless not assured within the financial system. 

Furthermore, the buck began the week down in opposition to most of its friends, together with the yen. This occurred after Moody’s downgraded the US authorities’s credit standing, citing its rising debt measurement. This was one more reason for merchants to dump the greenback and purchase the yen.

Moreover, demand for the safe-haven yen elevated after studies that Trump was threatening tariffs on international locations that aren’t negotiating in good religion. The US has introduced commerce offers with the UK and China, which boosted sentiment. Nevertheless, talks with India, Japan, and South Korea appear to have stalled. Because of this, Trump’s tariff threats brought about some uncertainty available in the market. 

In the meantime, BoJ policymakers are able to hold climbing rates of interest so long as the financial system pushes previous Trump’s tariff impacts. 

USD/JPY key occasions at the moment

Market members don’t count on any key financial releases from the US and Japan.

USD/JPY technical forecast: Bears attain a pivotal help zone

USD/JPY technical forecastUSD/JPY technical forecast
USD/JPY 4-hour chart

On the technical aspect, the USD/JPY value has pulled again and is approaching its help trendline. The value trades beneath the 30-SMA, with the RSI below 50, indicating a bearish bias. On the similar time, the worth has reached the 0.618 Fib retracement stage which may act as a help. 

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Subsequently, USD/JPY would possibly quickly bounce larger. The value has maintained a shallow uptrend that chops by means of the SMA however respects the trendline. Consequently, the uptrend will proceed if bulls return close to the trendline help. Such an final result would permit the worth to interrupt above the 146.02 resistance stage and the 30-SMA. Bulls would possible break above the 148.51 resistance stage to make a brand new excessive. 

Alternatively, a break beneath the trendline would sign a shift in sentiment. It might permit bears to retest the 142.55 help stage.

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