The standard knowledge says veteran holders don’t promote into weak spot. They accumulate via drawdowns, harvest features throughout euphoria, and in any other case sit nonetheless whereas newer cohorts churn.
Late 2025 is testing that mannequin. Throughout Ethereum, XRP, and pockets of the DeFi stack, dormant whales are shifting provide to exchanges as mid-term consumers flee, making a bifurcated distribution sample that reveals which belongings have real cost-basis depth and which stay top-heavy with latest entrants.
Distribution with out capitulation
What makes this second distinct isn’t the actual fact of promoting, as veterans all the time rotate, however the timing and composition.
Ethereum whales amassed 460,000 ETH as the value slid beneath $3,200 in mid-November, but Santiment’s Age Consumed metric slowed reasonably than spiked.
That divergence issues: if fewer very previous cash are shifting whereas mixture whale balances rise, the strain comes from holders within the three-to-ten-year band trimming positions reasonably than ICO-era wallets dumping.
Glassnode knowledge reveals these mid-duration cohorts promoting roughly 45,000 ETH per day, a measured tempo that contrasts with the panic-driven spikes seen earlier within the yr when each short- and long-term holders exited concurrently.
XRP tells the other story. Dormant Circulation for the 365-day cohort spiked to its highest degree since July as whales transferred months-long holdings to Binance, reactivating provide that had been untouched via the prior rally.
CryptoQuant’s 100-day easy shifting common for the Whale-to-Change Movement metric peaked on Nov. 6, signaling a multi-month uptrend and suggesting the distribution is structural reasonably than episodic.
When mixed with dormant-supply reactivations throughout each one-year-plus and three-to-twelve-month bands, the sample is obvious: XRP’s 2025 strikes systematically drew out older holders who had waited via consolidation and now see exits because the rational commerce.
Though the circulation of whale exchanges has subsided, it stays among the many highest ranges noticed in 2025.
The trade-off embedded in these flows is simple. Ethereum’s whales are rotating, and older holders are promoting into energy as new consumers enter at larger value bases, constructing a rising realized cap ground whilst the value consolidates.
XRP’s whales are distributing right into a market the place latecomers already maintain a lot of the realized cap at elevated costs, leaving no absorption cushion if spot demand continues to fade.
Realized cap because the structural inform
Realized cap measures the mixture value foundation of all cash, weighted by the value at which they final moved. For belongings that constructed real cost-basis ladders over a number of cycles, realized cap acts as long-term help.
For belongings that printed most of their realized cap in a single blow-off, the construction is brittle: when the highest cohort sells, there’s little beneath.
Ethereum’s realized cap was $391 billion as of Nov. 18, in line with Santiment, absorbing distribution from older holders through recent inflows whilst worth chopped sideways.
That continued accumulation at various entry factors means the community retains cost-basis range, short-term holders sit extra uncovered if one other leg down materializes, however veteran cohorts trimming at $3,200 don’t collapse your entire construction as a result of new members stuffed the hole at intermediate ranges.
XRP’s realized cap practically doubled from $30 billion to $64 billion in the course of the late-2024 rally, with $30 billion of that coming from consumers who entered within the final six months.
By early 2025, cash youthful than 6 months accounted for 62.8% of realized cap, up from 23%, concentrating value foundation at cycle highs. Glassnode’s realized profit-to-loss ratio has trended downward since January, indicating that latest entrants are actually realizing losses reasonably than features.
When whales ship previous cash to exchanges in November, reactivating dormant provide at exactly the second latecomers flip underwater, the realized cap imbalance turns into the central vulnerability.
Dormancy as a number one indicator
Dormancy metrics monitor when beforehand idle provide reenters lively circulation. Spikes in these indicators don’t robotically sign tops, however reasonably sign regime change.
When holders who weathered prior cycles resolve situations warrant an exit, their motion typically precedes broader distribution as a result of they function on longer time horizons and bigger place sizes than retail cohorts.
Ethereum’s Age Consumed spikes in September and October got here from ICO-era wallets lastly shifting after years of inactivity, however these strikes occurred into energy reasonably than panic.
By mid-November, as whales holding 1,000 to 100,000 ETH amassed over 1.6 million ETH, the Age Consumed metric quieted, which means the heavy flows had been pushed by massive holders rotating reasonably than historic wallets capitulating.
That creates a ground: if the oldest cohorts aren’t promoting and mid-term whales are shopping for, spot absorption can deal with measured profit-taking from the three-to-ten-year band.
XRP’s dormancy sample broke the opposite method. The 365-day Dormant Circulation hit ranges unseen since July, with repeated crimson spikes as previous cash awoke and moved to exchanges.
The reactivations turned extra frequent as the value struggled to carry above $2, suggesting that holders who sat via the consolidation determined the risk-reward not justified their endurance.
When dormancy spikes coincide with weakening spot demand and a top-heavy realized cap, the sign is unambiguous: veterans are distributing right into a market that may’t take up it with out breaking worth help.
Who holds the bag
If Ethereum’s distribution continues on the present tempo, three-to-ten-year holders promoting 45,000 ETH day by day whereas whales accumulate and realized cap rises, the end result is a market with larger long-term help however elevated short-term volatility.
New entrants at $3,000-$3,500 develop into the marginal sellers if worth breaks decrease, whereas veteran cohorts sit on unrealized features massive sufficient to climate one other drawdown.
If XRP’s dormant-supply reactivations persist whereas the realized cap stays concentrated amongst holders with six-month-or-newer holdings, the trail narrows.
Every wave of veteran distribution pushes latest consumers additional underwater. As a result of these latest consumers account for almost all of realized cap, their capitulation would collapse the cost-basis ground reasonably than merely take a look at it.
The danger is self-reinforcing: whales distribute, latecomers promote at losses, realized cap falls, and the subsequent cohort of holders faces a fair weaker help construction.
For protocols like Aave, the place dormancy knowledge stays sparse, a single deal with crystalizing $1.54 million in losses by promoting 15,396 AAVE right into a downtrend alerts compelled or fear-driven exits from latest entrants, not long-term holders harvesting features.
When these losses occur whereas the asset trades beneath all main shifting averages and broader DeFi danger urge for food deteriorates, late-cycle capital is exiting reasonably than rotating.
Who decides the ground
The central query is whether or not this cycle’s dormant provide reactivations characterize wholesome rotation, veteran holders exiting at earnings whereas new capital enters at larger bases, or the start of a broader deleveraging the place top-heavy realized caps collapse underneath sustained distribution.
Ethereum’s knowledge means that older cash are shifting. Nonetheless, the majority of latest circulation comes from mid-term whales trimming reasonably than historic wallets dumping, and rising realized cap confirms recent cash continues to common in.
XRP’s knowledge means that dormancy spikes are drawing out one-year-plus holders, whereas 62.8% of realized cap sits with consumers who entered within the final six months.
The result is determined by which cohort blinks first. If latest entrants maintain and spot demand stabilizes, veteran distribution will get absorbed, and the market builds the next ground via turnover.
If latecomers capitulate earlier than veteran sellers exhaust themselves, realized cap falls, cost-basis depth evaporates, and the subsequent help degree sits far beneath the present worth.
Whales are stirring. Whether or not that’s a rotation or a rout is determined by who’s left to catch what they’re promoting.
